AT&T Byron Nelson PGA Betting Picks and Guide (2021)

The AT&T Byron Nelson returns to the PGA Tour schedule and will be played for the first time ever at TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, Texas. Sung Kang will defend his title from 2019 at Trinity Forest Golf Club against a strong but top-heavy field. The event is preceding next week’s PGA Championship and follows Rory McIlroy’s resurgent win at last week’s Wells Fargo Championship. Below we will provide the top PGA betting picks.

The field was dealt a blow Monday afternoon as world No. 1 Dustin Johnson withdrew. Still, Jon Rahm and Bryson DeChambeau lead the way as betting favorites. Hideki Matsuyama and Brooks Koepka return to play ahead of the year’s second major.

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Previous Winners of the AT&T Byron Nelson

2019: Sung Kang
2018: Aaron Wise
2017: Billy Horschel
2016: Sergio Garcia

Course Preview (TPC Craig Ranch)

TPC Craig Ranch has never hosted a PGA Tour event before but it was the host of the 2012 Tour Championship. The Tom Weiskopf design is a par 72 measuring 7,468 yards under tournament conditions. The putting surfaces are composed of Bentgrass. Rowlett Creek traverses the course and comes into play 13 times.

Three of four par 5s top 550 yards and three of the four par 3s are longer than 200 yards. Two par 4s are shorter than 400 yards, two are between 400-450 yards, five range from 450-500 yards, and one tops 500 yards.

Relevant Betting Stats

Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green
Par 4 Efficiency: 450-500 Yards
Birdie or Better Percentage

Outright PGA Betting Picks

Daniel Berger (+1700 on DraftKings Sportsbook)

Berger returns to play for the first time since a T13 finish at the RBC Heritage. The strong showing followed a missed cut at the Masters. The 16th-ranked golfer in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR) has a win (AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am) and three other top-10 finishes against two missed cuts through nine events in 2021. He’s sixth on Tour and second in this field in birdie or better percentage, and he’s averaging 1.17 SG: Tee-to-Green per round, according to Data Golf. He won last year’s Charles Schwab Challenge in Fort Worth, Texas, following the Tour’s COVID-19 induced midseason pause against a much stronger field.

Ryan Palmer (+5000 on BetMGM Sportsbook)

Palmer is one of the many Texas natives in the field this week. The 31st-ranked golfer in the OWGR is 24th on Tour this season in par 4 efficiency from our chosen distance and T11 in birdie or better percentage. He’s averaging 1.16 total strokes gained on the field per round, with most of the advantage coming from his iron play. He has two top 10 finishes against no missed cuts through 10 events, including a T2 at the lengthy Torrey Pines for the Farmers Insurance Open.

Long-shot Betting Picks

Cameron Champ (+10000 on BetMGM Sportsbook)

Champ is sixth among qualified golfers this season and fourth in this field with 0.81 SG: Off-the-Tee per round through 32 measured rounds. His putter and short game are holding him back but the new venue will help to level the playing field with so few in the field having any sort of experience at TPC Craig Ranch. He’s 47th on Tour in birdie or better percentage and offers too high of odds at BetMGM for a two-time PGA Tour winner. He’s just +5500 at FanDuel Sportsbook.

James Hahn (+15000 on FanDuel Sportsbook)

Hahn may become one of the popular PGA betting picks by Thursday morning so it’s advised to get any bet on him in sooner than later. Now ranked 153rd in the OWGR, he finished second in the 2012 Tour Championship for the best finish of anyone in this week’s field. He missed the cut each of the last two weeks in his first events since withdrawing from The Honda Classic, but he finished 10th in the Waste Management Phoenix Open earlier in the year. He’s a strong putter and has had success on these greens. He won the Wells Fargo Championship in 2016 at the lengthy Quail Hollow Club.

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Esten McLaren is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Esten, check out his archive and follow him @EstenMclaren.

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