PGA Betting Picks: Best Prop Bets for the 2021 Memorial Tournament

Defending champion Jon Rahm fronts a strong field at Muirfield Village Golf Club (MVGC) in Dublin, Ohio, for the 2021 Memorial Tournament. Seven of the top-10 golfers in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR) are in attendance this week for Jack Nicklaus’ tournament; World No. 1 Dustin Johnson is among those taking this week off. This will be the last event many of them play before the US Open in two weeks. Below, we’ll look for the best value prop bets for the Memorial Tournament and make our top picks and predictions.

Muirfield Village is a long-standing stop on the PGA Tour schedule. Last year, it hosted the Workday Charity Open and the Memorial Tournament in back-to-back weeks before undergoing significant renovations. The course was lengthened to 7,543 yards and many of the greens were altered or moved. Still, MVGC is an excellent test of iron play and the short game

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Best Finishing Position

Hideki Matsuyama -118 vs. Tony Finau -108 (on FanDuel Sportsbook)

The reigning Masters champ won the 2014 Memorial Tournament at 13-under par in a playoff over Kevin Na. He lost strokes with the putter but was first in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and second in SG: Approach for the week, according to Data Golf. Outside of his victory at Augusta National Golf Club, putting has been his weakness this season, and he has no other top-10 finishes through 13 events in 2021.

Finau tied for 20th last week at the Charles Schwab Challenge after a T8 at the PGA Championship in which he led the field with 1.57 SG: Around-the-Green per round. He’s one spot ahead of Matsuyama at No. 13 in the OWGR and has six top-10 finishes through 12 stroke-play events this year. Take the value with the higher-ranked golfer as a short underdog at FanDuel. This same matchup is a pick ’em at BetMGM Sportsbook.

Top-5 Finish

Louis Oosthuizen (+750 on FanDuel Sportsbook)

Oosthuizen has back-to-back top-10 finishes, including a T2 at the PGA Championship. He was seventh in the field two weeks ago in SG: Tee-to-Green and sixth in SG: Around-the-Green. For the 2020-21 PGA Tour season, he’s averaging 0.48 SG: Around-the-Green and 1.04 SG: Putting per round.

The veteran South African has a poor history at MVGC, but his putter will prove to be an advantage with the new greens helping to level that playing field. He’s +500 and +650 at DraftKings Sportsbook and BetMGM, respectively, for a top-5 finish.

To Make the Cut

Sam Burns: No (+200 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

Burns claimed his first PGA Tour victory at the Valspar Championship and followed it with a runner-up finish at the AT&T Byron Nelson before withdrawing from the PGA Championship due to injury. He’s a strong fade candidate this week with his hot streak cooled off.

Burns won’t have his usual advantage in driving distance, and he has struggled with the short game this season. He’s losing 0.13 strokes around the green per round. While he was strong in that area at the AT&T Byron Nelson, his victory at the Valspar Championship was more due to a hot putter bailing him out.

Round 1 Leader

Cameron Smith (+5500 on FanDuel Sportsbook)

Smith leads the PGA Tour with a Round 1 scoring average of 68.79 and seems as though he’ll draw the superior weather in Thursday’s afternoon wave. The forecast for Dublin, Ohio, is calling for showers in the morning, likely leaving the course soft and scorable for Smith’s 1:44 p.m. ET tee time.

He has struggled at MVGC in previous appearances, but his short game and putting have been strong this season, and he’s seventh in this field with 1.73 total strokes gained per round.

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Esten McLaren is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Esten, check out his archive and follow him @EstenMclaren.

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