Two Major League Baseball teams have reached historic levels of futility this week. The Arizona Diamondbacks and Baltimore Orioles have combined for 42 consecutive road losses, with Arizona’s 23rd straight road loss breaking a Major League record. Needless to say, those that have sided with the opposition for each team’s streak have made huge profits over the last month and a half. The bad news for bettors is neither team plays another road game until late next week. However, the good news for bettors is they have 22 consecutive losses overall between them, so there is still an opportunity to fade them regardless of where their next games will be played.
The Diamondbacks host the Dodgers this weekend, while the Orioles host the Blue Jays? Just how high will Los Angeles’s and Toronto’s moneyline odds go?
Here are my MLB top betting plays for Friday. (Odds courtesy DraftKings Sportsbook)
View the best player prop bets for today’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
YTD: 86-71-3 (+6.39 units)
Pittsburgh Pirates ML (+123)
In the opening, we highlighted two teams that are each amid long-losing streaks. With our first pick of the day, we are backing another MLB team with the second-longest active losing streak in the league.
The Pittsburgh Pirates enter a five-game homestand, having lost ten consecutive games. Their last six losses had come on the road, with the start of their current losing streak happening when they lost a series finale against the Marlins and then getting swept at home in three games by the Dodgers. However, the Pirates had won five of six home games before that poor stretch and look to take advantage of a Cleveland Indians team that have drastically outperformed their expectations.
Despite being ten games over .500, Cleveland has a run differential of +6, and their expected win-loss record is 34-32, which is four games worse than where they currently stand. The Indians are piecing together a rotation that has just one healthy starter (Aaron Civale) that was expected to be a full-time rotation member all season. Manager Terry Francona has had to get creative with tonight’s starter, Jean Carlos Mejia, who has been removed early from his last few starts to preserve his pitch count. Mejia (1-1, 4.26 ERA) is working on short rest after having last pitched on Monday and will likely only be asked to throw another 50-60 pitches tonight.
The Pirates had the benefit of an off-day yesterday and are 2-1 when they have a rest advantage over their opponents. The Indians are 0-2 in the two games they have been at a rest disadvantage, and with this game turning into more of a bullpen game for Cleveland, it is an excellent opportunity to buy low on the reeling Pirates.
New York Yankees Team Total UNDER 5.5 runs (-110)
Those that are avid followers of the New York Yankees know how surprising their offensive struggles have been all year. They also know that New York historically struggles when facing opposing pitchers for the first time. As that is the case with Oakland A’s rookie James Kaprielian on the mound tonight, the Yankees’ under on their team total is the most logical play.
New York is on pace for their highest strikeout rate in franchise history, and their 3.90 runs per game (which ranks 25th in the league) is their worst in nearly 40 years. They do not enter this game with the most consistency either, as they have scored more than three runs just twice in their last four games.
James Kaprielian (3-1, 2.51 ERA) is coming off a six-scoreless inning effort in his last start and has allowed more than two earned runs just once in six starts. Kaprielian should be able to overpower New York’s right-handed dominant lineup, primarily since he has held righties to a .131 batting average to this point.
The under is 5-0-1 in the last six meetings between the A’s and Yankees, and Oakland is 8-0 in their last eight games following an off day. Both of these trends point to a rough day offensively for the Bronx Bombers.
San Francisco Giants ML (-125)
After a home sweep of the Diamondbacks, the San Francisco Giants own MLB’s best record at 44-25. The Giants have the third-best home winning percentage in the league and host a Philadelphia Phillies team that is an NL-East worst 12-21 on the road. Given the lack of health in the Phillies lineup, they are not built to challenge the best team in baseball on the road.
Philadelphia is without their two middle infielders, Jean Segura and Didi Gregorius, who are in the IL while nursing groin and elbow injuries. They may also be without Bryce Harper, who missed Wednesday’s series finale against the Dodgers and is still considered “day-to-day.” Meanwhile, the Giants have not missed Evan Longoria’s presence in the lineup, as their offense has scored at least five runs in each of their last four games.
The Giants hitters face Philadephia’s Vince Velasquez (2-1, 4.25 ERA), who was tagged for six earned runs over three innings in his last road start. Velasquez is 1-3 with a 3.62 ERA in five career starts against San Francisco but has lost both of his starts at AT&T Park. Johnny Cueto’s career numbers against Philadelphia leave something to be desired, as he is 1-5 with a 5.30 ERA in 12 career starts against them. However, the under is 3-0-1 in his last four starts, and we like his chances of doing his part in keeping runs down in this one.
MLB Prop Bets
Eugenio Suarez Prop Bet Odds
Bryce Harper Prop Bet Odds
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