Welcome back for another Sunday. The MLB trade deadline is in six days, and we have already seen a few players moved. One of those players, Rich Hill, is debuting with his new team today. Will he factor into our Top 3 MLB bets for today? Let’s get to the picks.
Here are my top betting plays for Sunday, July 25. Have questions or want to talk baseball or betting? Feel free to reach out on Twitter @mikeMaher.
View the best player prop bets for today’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
Philadelphia Phillies ML (-125)
Phillies starter Aaron Nola is having a strange season. There are times he looks like an ace or at least a “1A” starter for the Phillies. But he continues to be inconsistent in 2021. Since June 13, his ERA has jumped from 3.69 to 4.64, and he allowed four earned runs in his last start against the Yankees. Nola had a long layoff in between starts, though, as he spent time on the COVID-19 IL because of contact tracing before making his first start after the All-Star break. I expect him to bounce back against the Braves on Sunday.
Atlanta is sending Touki Toussaint to the mound. Toussaint was excellent in his first start last week, allowing one earned run over 6 2/3 innings against the Padres while striking out five. But if we are talking about being inconsistent, Toussaint is the poster boy. He’s an uber-talented 25-year-old right-hander who pitched to an 8.88 ERA with the Braves in 2020 and had a 4.32 ERA through 16 2/3 innings in Triple-A this season. He has been working his way back from a shoulder strain for most of 2021, and I don’t expect to see a repeat of his performance against the Padres on Sunday. In a duel between Nola and Toussaint, I’m rolling the dice on Nola every time. Take the Phillies.
Blue Jays-Mets OVER 8.5 runs (-113)
Rich Hill is making his debut for the New York Mets after being traded from the Tampa Bay Rays earlier this week. But he’s facing the juggernaut that is the Toronto Blue Jays lineup, so this may not be a first impression to remember. Now, this game is being played in Flushing Meadows and not Buffalo or Toronto where this over/under number would be higher, but that is to your advantage here. The Blue Jays are capable of scoring nine runs on their own, and this number is too low.
The Blue Jays are sending Ross Stripling to the mound. Stripling has pitched well at times in 2021, but he has allowed 10 earned runs over his last four innings and is coming off an outing in which he allowed six runs while recording just one out. The Mets’ lineup is finally getting some of their bigger names back, and Pete Alonso has been hot since the All-Star break. This game has the potential for implosion from both pitchers and explosion from both lineups, and those are exactly the games I like to target for overs.
San Diego Padres ML (-175)
These are obviously not ideal odds, but that’s because this is essentially a lock. Fox Bet has the best Padres moneyline number (-175), while the consensus is -180 and DraftKings has it as high as -190. This is because the Padres are sending Yu Darvish to the mound, and the Marlins haven’t even announced a starter yet. Darvish has stumbled a bit out of the gate to start the second half, otherwise this number might be even higher. But the Padres are locked in a battle for the NL West division title, while the Marlins are fading and entering sell mode ahead of this week’s MLB trade deadline. Darvish vs. a Miami bullpen game is an easy call.
That’s it for today. Have questions or want to talk baseball or betting? Feel free to reach out on Twitter @mikeMaher.
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Mike Maher is an editor and featured writer at FantasyPros and BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive, follow him on Twitter @MikeMaher, and visit his Philadelphia Eagles blog, The Birds Blitz.
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