Sunday is always one of my favorite days to bet on MLB games because 1. We usually get a bunch of day games, and 2. There are often a bunch of players resting and tweaked lineups since it’s a getaway day for most teams each week. That means you can find some great value plays if you pay attention to the lineups on Sunday mornings. If I see an already suspect lineup resting one or two of their best players for a Sunday matchup against a stud, I’m rushing to FanDuel or DraftKings before the odds change. Today, for example, we already know that the Astros are resting Yordan Alvarez against Kyle Gibson and the Rangers. For most of this space, though, we’re going to focus on matchups that we like even before we see any lineup changes.
Here are my top betting plays for Sunday, May 16. Have questions or want to talk baseball or betting? Feel free to reach out on Twitter @mikeMaher.
View the best player prop bets for today’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
Boston Red Sox over Los Angeles Angels: -1.5 runs (+116)
Angels starter Jose Quintana has a 9.00 ERA and 2.14 WHIP through six starts. He’s also a left-handed pitcher going up against one of the hottest lineups in baseball in Fenway Park, a ballpark that is not often kind to left-handed pitchers. This Boston lineup that was already potent is now seeing Bobby Dalbec, their young first baseball with 30+ home run power get hot. That extends this lineup even further and gives the Red Sox three power-hitting righties in Dalbec, Michael Chavis, and Hunter Renfroe to complement their core of Alex Verdugo, J.D. Martinez, Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers, and Christian Vazquez. I’m willing to give the 1.5 runs here to move this line from -158 to +116.
San Francisco Giants over Pittsburgh Pirates: -1.5 runs (+104)
FanDuel has this run line at -104, but you can get it for +104 over at DraftKings. Pro tip: always check out the BettingPros Game Odds before placing your bets because you can see all of the odds in one place and then pick your spots. I picked this matchup before seeing the odds and then pivoted from FanDuel to DraftKings once I saw the difference. Anyway, let’s get to the matchup itself. The Giants are sending Alex Wood to the mound against Mitch Keller and the Pirates. Wood and the Giants have been very good this season. Keller and the Pirates have been very bad. That’s our starting point. Wood hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in any of his five starts this season, and the Pirates have one of the worst offenses in baseball. On the other side, Keller has a 7.81 ERA and has allowed seven earned runs in two of his last five starts. Even when he pitches fairly well, he doesn’t pitch deep into games and hands things over to one of the worst bullpens in baseball.
10 early MLB games today. I love it. Here are some of my favorite @MLB bets this Sunday:#RedSox over #Angels (-1.5 runs, +116 @FDSportsbook)#Giants over #Pirates (-1.5 runs, +104 @DKSportsbook)
#Astros – #Rangers UNDER 8 runs (-108 @DKSportsbook)
— mike Maher. (@mikeMaher) May 16, 2021
Rangers-Astros UNDER 8 Runs (-108)
Sunday’s Rangers-Astros matchup features two good lineups but also two really good starting pitchers in Kyle Gibson and Lance McCullers. If not for one bad outing, McCullers would have an ERA under 2.00, while Kyle Gibson has quietly been one of the better pitchers in baseball through the first six weeks of the season. This one has pitching duel written all over it, even with two solid lineups. Like we mentioned in the opener, we already know that the Astros are resting Yordan Alvarez today. It wouldn’t be surprising to see the Rangers rest someone like Willie Calhoun in favor of Khris Davis. Grab the under for this one, and keep an eye on those lineups. If one of these teams rests multiple players, I’m hopping on the moneyline for this one, too.
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Mike Maher is an editor and featured writer at FantasyPros and BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive, follow him on Twitter @MikeMaher, and visit his Philadelphia Eagles blog, The Birds Blitz.
The post Top 3 MLB Betting Picks for Sunday, May 16 (2021) appeared first on BettingPros.