Top 3 MLB Betting Picks for Tuesday, April 27th (2021)

Only in 2021 would we be discussing if something is a no-hitter or not. On Sunday afternoon, Arizona Diamondbacks starter Madison Bumgarner did not allow a hit through seven innings in the second game of their doubleheader with the Atlanta Braves. Since new MLB rules state that doubleheaders are only seven-inning affairs, Bumgarner’s outing counts as a complete game shutout, but it will not go into the record books as a no-hitter. That sparked a lot of debate over Twitter, with many pleading for Bumgarner’s case. Where do you land on this argument?

Here are my MLB top betting plays for Tuesday. (Odds courtesy DraftKings Sportsbook):

View the best player prop bets for today’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>

YTD: 29-21-1 (+5.07 units)

Red Sox-Mets OVER 8.5 runs (-104)

The over has cashed just once in the New York Mets’ last six games but is 3-1 in the Boston Red Sox’s previous four games. With the way the Red Sox hit left-handed pitching, we like it to cash once again.

The Red Sox face Mets left-handed starter David Peterson, who is 1-2 with a 6.75 ERA through his first three starts. Peterson was drafted by the Red Sox out of high school in 2014 and beat Boston in his only start against them last year, which was his MLB debut. In that start, Peterson allowed two earned runs on seven hits in 5.2 innings. However, this year’s Red Sox offense is mashing left-handed pitching. Their .279 BA against lefties ranks fourth in the league, and they rank sixth with a .795 OPS.

Boston’s starting pitcher, Garret Richards, has had his share of troubles this year as well. Richards is 0-2 with a 6.48 ERA through three starts and is coming off his worst outing of the year. He allowed four runs on four hits in 4.2 innings against the Blue Jays, but most troubling were his season-high six walks. His 1.86 WHIP is worrisome, and the Mets offense that has scored at least four runs in three of their last five games will take advantage if he once again struggles with his command.

Chicago White Sox -1.5 runs (-109)

The Detroit Tigers offense has been putrid over the last two weeks. Detroit’s offense has been shut out more times (twice) than they have scored more than two runs (once) in their previous ten games. Entering Monday, they ranked dead-last in the league with both a .205 team batting average and .621 OPS. Things do not get any easier for Tigers hitters today, as they face White Sox ace Lucas Giolito. 

Giolito (1-1, 5.79 ERA) is out to prove that his last start was a fluke. After allowing just three earned runs and striking out 18 through his first 12.1 innings, Giolito was lit up for seven runs on eight hits in just one inning against the Red Sox. He missed his last scheduled start on Sunday with a cut on his finger, but the team says he is good to go for tonight’s start.

Giolito has a career 5-2 record and 4.24 ERA in nine starts against the Tigers. He has not lost a decision to Detroit in the last two seasons and pitched to a 2.12 ERA with 20 strikeouts in just 12.2 innings against them last year.

The White Sox have won four straight games and six of their last seven. They are 6-2 as home favorites and have the added advantage of a day off since their weekend series, while Detroit has played 17 games in the last 17 days. The White Sox had MLB’s second-best run differential entering Monday, so look for another big win tonight against the lowly Tigers.  

Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 runs (-103)

The Dodgers are 2-6 in their last eight games. With most teams, that kind of stretch would be considered a mini-slump, but things get more magnified for the defending champions, who are projected to win north of 100 games.

Before scoring 12 runs in their last two games against the Padres, the Dodgers had not scored more than three runs in any of their last six games. The offense seems to miss the bat of Cody Bellinger, who has been on the IL since April 22nd with a leg injury. 

One thing that should help their offensive woes is a meeting with Reds starter Jeff Hoffman. Though Hoffman’s numbers (2-1, 2.66 ERA) are great thus far, one has to consider that his starts have come against the Cardinals, Diamondbacks, and Indians. None of those offenses rank in the top-13 in the league in batting average, and only one rank in the top 20. Los Angeles’s offense will be by far his toughest test to date, and his 6.50 career ERA in seven appearances against them validates that point.

Hoffman will also receive his most formidable competition from a pitching perspective, as he opposed Walker Buehler on the mound. Buehler (1-0, 2.16 ERA) leads all Dodgers starters in ERA, and he has gone at least six innings and allowed two earned runs or less in all of his four starts. Buehler’s ERA is almost a full 1.50 runs lower at home than on the road in his career. Though he is 1-2 in his three starts against the Reds, he has pitched to a minuscule 1.47 ERA and has struck out 23 Reds in 18.1 innings. 

The Reds have a runline record of 3-7 in their ten away games, and laying the -1.5 runs presents a lot more value in this spot than Los Angeles’s steep moneyline odds.

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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