Top 3 MLB Betting Picks for Tuesday, June 15th (2021)

If you have been following MLB Futures, and specifically the NL CY Young odds, you would have noticed a particular player’s name that shot like a cannon to the top of the odds list. New York Mets ace Jacob deGrom went from +900 to +200 at BetMGM in just one week and has surpassed Fernando Tatis Jr. (+275) as the betting favorite. That is significant news considering there have been just 25 pitchers in MLB history to win the award, and just two have done so in the past 28 years. deGrom has the lowest ERA (0.56) and WHIP (0.53) through ten starts in Major League history, and it helps that he is a dominant force of a first-place team.

The craziest thing about deGrom’s 2021 campaign from a betting standpoint is that even though he is on pace for the best pitching season of all time, bettors would be down $55 if they bet the Mets’ moneyline in each of his starts, per ESPN Stats & Information research. New York is 7-3 in his ten starts as they have provided him with little run support on many occasions, so it will be interesting to see how bettors handle the team’s steep moneyline odds in his starts in the future.

Here are my MLB top betting plays for Tuesday. (Odds courtesy DraftKings Sportsbook)

View the best player prop bets for today’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>

YTD: 80-68-3 (+4.14 units)

Toronto Blue Jays ML (-120)

The New York Yankees are 5-12 in their last 17 games and have won just one of their previous five series. In that span was a series at home where the Toronto Blue Jays took two out of three games. Additionally, the Blue Jays have taken two out of three games in each of the three series they have played against the Yankees this season. Thus, with their best pitcher on the mound tonight, they are an excellent bet to win this opener and be on their way to taking yet another series from the struggling Yankees.

Hyun Jin Ryu (5-4, 3.34 ERA) has allowed nine earned runs in his last 11.2 innings, which spans starts at home against the Astros and at the White Sox. Those two teams entered Monday as the first and third-highest scoring teams in the majors, while the Yankees have scored the second-fewest runs in the American League. Thus, those that are worried about Ryu’s recent struggles should expect a bounce-back performance tonight. Ryu has made two starts against the Yankees this season. He is 1-0 and has allowed just two earned runs over 12 innings with a 12:2 K:BB ratio.

The Blue Jays offense will face New York’s Jordan Montgomery (3-1, 3.99 ERA), who is 2-1 with a 3.58 ERA in seven career appearances (six starts) against Toronto. Montgomery failed to get through five innings in his May 27 start against the Blue Jays, allowing three runs on five hits while striking out just one batter. He will have to deal with a red-hot Blue Jays lineup that has averaged 7.8 runs per game over their last four games and has gotten two home runs apiece from Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Cavan Biggio, and Bo Bichette in that span.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. of the @BlueJays is the youngest player in MLB history to homer in every game of a 4-game road series.

— Stats By STATS (@StatsBySTATS) June 15, 2021

Many bettors will point to the fact that the Yankees are coming off a day’s rest while the Blue Jays finished a grueling series with the Red Sox last night. However, New York is 0-2 with the rest advantage over their opponents, while Toronto is 2-1 in the three games they have been at a rest disadvantage.

Vlad Guerrero Jr.'s HR was the @BlueJays 100th of the season.

It's the 2nd fastest (64 games) that they've reached the 100 HR mark (2000).

— MLB Stats (@MLBStats) June 15, 2021

Red Sox-Braves OVER 9 runs (-109)

The Atlanta Braves have been one of the most profitable teams to the over when playing at home, as they have an over/under record of 20-12-2 in their 34 home games. They open a two-game series against a Boston Red Sox team whose pitching staff had a 5.28 ERA in June and a WHIP of 1.66 in their June 13 games entering Monday.

One of the biggest culprits for Boston’s lofty ERA is tonight’s starter, Eduardo Rodriguez (5-4, 6.03 ERA). Rodriguez is 0-4 with an 8.49 ERA in his last six starts, and he has pitched to a 6.23 ERA in eight road starts this year. He may benefit from the absence of Ronald Acuna Jr. in Atlanta’s lineup, who is day-to-day with a pectoral injury. Either way, Atlanta possesses a top-ten offense that ranks in the top half of the league in batting average and OPS versus left-handed pitching. The over is 9-4 in Atlanta’s last 13 home games versus a left-handed starter.

We expect some regression from Atlanta’s rookie Tucker Davidson, who has pitched to a 1.53 ERA through three starts this season. His three starts have all come against NL East opponents, while the Red Sox are seventh in the majors in batting average against lefties.

The over is 7-1-1 in the last nine meetings between these teams, including cashing in each of their previous four meetings in Atlanta, so look for another high-scoring affair in this one.

Texas Rangers ML (+170)

The Texas Rangers are an abysmal 13-44 in their last 57 road games, including losing 17 of their previous 18 games. But we are backing them in Houston tonight because that is how much confidence we have in starting pitcher Kyle Gibson. Gibson (4-0, 2.13 ERA) has faced Houston twice this season and has allowed three earned runs in 13 combined innings. He has a WHIP of 1.11 and an OBA of .202 in six road starts and has pitched to a 1.59 ERA in two starts since coming off the injured list.

Speaking of the injured list, Gibson is opposed by Houston’s Lance McCullers Jr. (3-1, 2.96 ERA), who is making his first start since May 22 after landing on the IL with a shoulder injury. The Astros have hinted at being careful with McCullers early on and may use Jake Odorizzi as a long man to eat up many of the middle innings. However, given Odorizzi’s 6.75 ERA, it is fair to say the Rangers have the pitching edge in this matchup and are worth taking a flier on with their ace on the mound.

Texas is 8-4 in Gibson’s starts and has won each of the last three against likely playoff teams in the Giants, Rays, and Astros. Thus, there is no reason they cannot ride him to another win over Houston tonight.

MLB Prop Bets

Trea Turner Prop Bet Odds
J.D. Martinez Prop Bet Odds
Hyun-Jin Ryu Prop Bet Odds
Ronald Acuna Prop Bet Odds
Cavan Biggio Prop Bet Odds

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