June 1st has arrived, and it is a big day on the Major League Baseball calendar. The Elias Sports Bureau tracked the historical performances of teams in the wild-card era (since 1995, excluding the 2020 season) on June 1st. They found that 59% of teams in sole possession of first place on June 1st went on to win their division.
If history holds, at least three teams from the Rays, White Sox, Athletics, Mets, Cubs, and Giants will win their respective divisions. While no team can be considered a lock to win their division at this point, many teams are already formulating opinions on whether they will be buyers or sellers at the trade deadline. Thus, bettors should be sure to factor that into their wagers as it draws closer.
Here are my MLB top betting plays for Tuesday. (Odds courtesy DraftKings Sportsbook)
View the best player prop bets for today’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
YTD: 69-52-3 (+10.97 units)
Tampa Bay Rays ML (-120)
We rode the Tampa Bay Rays to a win yesterday, and they gave us no reason to fade them tonight. Perhaps the only thing that can slow the Rays down is the calendar turning to June, as they went 22-6 in May, and that .786 winning percentage was the second-highest of any month in Tampa Bay history. The Rays are 16-1 in their last 17 games and show no signs of slowing down with their ace on the mound tonight.
Tyler Glasnow (4-2, 2.57 ERA) has 98 strikeouts in 70 innings over his 11 starts. His 12.60 SO/9 ratio ranks fifth in the majors, and his 0.93 WHIP is 12th-best in baseball. Glasnow has been lights out in three career starts at Yankee Stadium, going 2-0 with a 1.62 ERA and 24 strikeouts in 16.2 innings. He faces a Yankees lineup that has scored two or fewer runs in each of their last four games (all losses) and has not scored more than two runs in ten of their previous 14 games. Glasnow has held current Yankees to a combined .173 batting average (14-for-81) and a .259 slugging percentage, so tonight does not appear to be the night they break out of their slump.
The Yankees have played 27 home games this year and have been home underdogs just once. New York lost that game, and another loss should be coming against a Tampa Bay team that is 7-4 as road favorites.
Minnesota Twins -1.5 runs (-109)
The Minnesota Twins are not as hot as the Tampa Bay Rays, but they are playing much better than the team that was at one point 14 games under .500 at 14-28. Since then, Minnesota has won eight of 11 games, and four of those wins have come against the lowly Baltimore Orioles. The Orioles are in the midst of a 14-game losing streak, which is the franchise’s longest losing streak since 2009. They are a Major League-worst 6-19 at home this season and are 0-8 against teams from the AL Central. The Twins may have difficulty catching the White Sox in the division this year, but continuing to get fat on poor teams like Baltimore should help get them back in the Wild Card race.
Minnesota’s Michael Pineda (3-2, 2.62 ERA) faced Baltimore in his last start, holding them to one run on three hits in six innings while striking out eight. He has allowed two runs or fewer in six of his eight starts. His WHIP is a minuscule 0.99, and he has 47 strikeouts over 44.2 innings this season.
The Twins have covered the -1.5 runline in just two of their four wins over Baltimore this season, but laying the -1.5 runs is worth the risk instead of laying much steeper moneyline odds. Though they have been a subpar 10-14 on the road this season, they are a respectable 7-7 as road favorites. Minnesota’s offense should get to Baltimore’s Bruce Zimmerman (2-3, 5.15 ERA) early and often in this one.
Colorado Rockies ML (-120)
The Colorado Rockies are on pace to be one of the worst road teams in MLB history, winning just four of their 26 road games thus far. The good thing is they will play their series opener against the Texas Rangers at Coors Field, where they are a respectable 16-12 this season. In addition, they are facing a Rangers team playing just as poorly on the road as Colorado, having lost their last 12 road games. Thus, the -120 moneyline odds are more than fair, especially given how well Colorado’s starting pitcher has fared of late.
German Marquez (3-5, 4.47 ERA) has posted a 0.69 ERA over his last two starts and has allowed just six earned runs over his previous 25 innings. Marquez made two starts against the Rangers last year, posting a 2.31 ERA over 11.2 innings. He has held current Rangers to a combined 5-for-23 (.217 BA) and a .391 slugging percentage, as just two of the five hits against him went for extra bases.
Texas’s Dane Dunning (2-4, 4.75 ERA) allowed a career-high seven runs in his last start against the Angels and has now allowed at least four runs in four of his previous seven. Dunning is a much better pitcher at home and has struggled mightily on the road. In five road starts, he is 0-3 with a 7.97 ERA compared to a 2-1 record with a 2.33 ERA at home. Setting another career-high for runs allowed is not out of the question tonight in the altitude of Coors Field.
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