Top 3 MLB Betting Picks for Wednesday, May 12th (2021)

The Los Angeles Dodgers’ struggles of late have been well-documented. After starting the season 13-2, L.A. has gone 6-12 in their last 18 games. They are now no longer considered as much of a “lock” to win the N.L. West as they once were. Entering Tuesday, FanGraphs gave the Dodgers a 55.3% chance to win the division, which is a lower percentage than the Mets, White Sox, and Yankees have of winning their respective divisions.

Granted, a lot of that has to do with the competition from the San Diego Padres in their division, who are one of the best teams in baseball. But the fact remains that bettors could have made a lot of money so far this season by fading the Dodgers each game since most of their games have moneyline odds of -200 or steeper. Will L.A. right the ship, or will oddsmakers continue to overvalue the Dodgers, considering they usually attract most of the betting money?

Here are my MLB top betting plays for Wednesday. (Odds courtesy DraftKings Sportsbook):

View the best player prop bets for today’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>

YTD: 45-35-2 (+6.61 units)

Orioles-Mets UNDER 7.5 runs (-112)

From 2012-2018, Matt Harvey spent six years in New York, leading the Mets to an N.L. pennant and earning the moniker “the Dark Knight.” Harvey dominated at the start of his Major League career, never pitching to higher than a 2.73 ERA in any of his first three full seasons. The end of his Mets career did not go as swimmingly. He was traded in 2018 after three consecutive seasons under .500 and with an ERA close to 5.00. In Harvey’s short run with the Orioles, he is not necessarily the same pitcher when he broke into the league, but he is undoubtedly better than the pitcher the Mets traded.

Harvey (3-2, 3.60 ERA) has won three of his last four starts, lowering his ERA from 5.02 in that span. He has allowed three earned runs in his previous 15.2 innings, a span that covers starts against A.L. contenders in the Yankees, A’s, and Red Sox. Harvey should be fired up to pitch at Citi Field and to face his former opponent, as his recent success suggests he will do his part in keeping the scoring down.

While Jacob deGrom and Marcus Stroman have received all the headlines for their starts to the season, Mets pitcher Taijuan Walker (2-1, 2.38 ERA) has flown under the radar. Walker has allowed two runs or fewer in five of his six starts and has 35 strikeouts in 34 innings. He has had tremendous success against current Orioles hitters, holding them to just a .050 batting average (1-for-20) and seven strikeouts in 22 combined plate appearances.

The under is 8-2 in the last ten meetings between these teams in New York, and another low-scoring battle between two solid pitchers should be in order.

Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 runs (+116)

Brewers starting pitcher Brandon Woodruff (2-1, 1.73 ERA) is unlucky to have just two wins given how well he has pitched this year. Woodruff has six quality starts in seven appearances. He entered Tuesday ranked fifth in the league in ERA, WHIP (0.77), and BAA (.148). His stuff has been electric this year, as his 11.02 SO/9 ranks 11th in the majors. 

St. Louis sends John Gant (2-3, 2.15 ERA) to the mound. Though his ERA is outstanding through his first six starts, his lack of command has yet to catch up with him. Gant walked a career-high six batters in his last start and has issued at least three walks in five of his first six starts. Eventually, those free passes will catch up to him and should start with a patient Brewers offense that ranks in the top half of the league in walks drawn this season.

The Brewers are 5-2 in Woodruff’s starts and scored just two runs combined in his two losses. With more run support likely tonight, the Brewers are a great value play with their ace on the mound.

Chicago White Sox ML (-137)

Minnesota Twins starting pitcher JA Happ (2-0, 1.91 ERA) has been as reliable as any pitcher on the Twins staff this season. He has allowed two or fewer runs in all five of his starts this season. However, having a lefty on the mound may not be a good thing against the right-handed dominant White Sox lineup. Chicago is 7-1 in their last eight home games against a left-handed starter and looks to greet Happ with his worst outing of the season.

The White Sox lead the majors with a .295 team batting average against lefties. Their .835 OPS ranks third, and their .370 OBP against lefties ranks second. While Chicago has had time to get used to the injuries to Luis Robert and Eloy Jimenez, Byron Buxton’s injury is still new to Minnesota. The Twins offense that entered Tuesday ranked eighth in the American League in runs scored is not nearly as deep without their spark plug at the top of the lineup.

White Sox starter Dallas Keuchel (1-1, 3.79 ERA) has overcome a slow start to the season and has rebounded with a 2.25 ERA over his last four starts. In two starts against the Twins last year, Keuchel was 1-0 with a 1.74 ERA. Thus, we like his chances to replicate that success today, especially with a red-hot offense to support him. 

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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