Top 3 MLB Betting Picks for Wednesday, May 5th (2021)

If there is eventually going to be a chink in the defending champion Los Angeles Dodgers’ armor this season, it is that they could not stay healthy. Starting pitcher Dustin May became the latest Dodgers casualty after being ruled out for the rest of the season to undergo Tommy John surgery. He joins David Price and Tony Gonsolin, who are expected to miss several more weeks, along with relief pitchers Brandon Morrow, Joe Kelly, Tommy Kahnle, and Brusdar Graterol, among others on the IL. Los Angeles has also been without slugger Cody Bellinger since April 5th, but team reports suggest he will face live pitching at the alternate training site this week. 

Many other teams’ futures odds would tumble after an injury report that long. However, the Dodgers are still heavy favorites to win the World Series (+325 at DraftKings Sportsbook), which shows you how much depth the organization has.

Here are my MLB top betting plays for Wednesday. (Odds courtesy DraftKings Sportsbook):

View the best player prop bets for today’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>

YTD: 39-27-2 (+7.79 units)

Colorado Rockies ML (-109)

After a 14-inning doubleheader yesterday, the Colorado Rockies arguably could not have picked a better pitcher to start today than Jon Gray. Gray (3-2, 3.15 ERA) has been an innings eater this year, going at least six innings in four of his six starts. Gray’s home/road splits are drastic this year. He has a 1.85 ERA through four home starts, despite three of them (vs. LAD, HOU, ARI) coming against top-four offenses in baseball entering Tuesday. With the San Francisco Giants not known for their offensive prowess, Gray is in line for another excellent start.

The Giants have earned first place in the standings, and the best record in the National League, primarily because of a pitching staff that ranks fourth in baseball with a 3.26 ERA. However, entering Tuesday, their team batting average and OPS both rank in the bottom half of the league, as does their team strikeout total.

Gray is just 1-6 with a 6.16 career ERA against the Giants, including a 10.38 ERA in two starts (both losses) last year. However, he should receive plenty of run support from an offense that is a combined 23-for-64 (.359) and slugging .531 against opposing starter Logan Webb (1-2, 4.13 ERA).

Gray’s poor career numbers against the Giants are why Colorado’s moneyline odds are not more inflated. However, he has tamed the best offenses at Coors Field so far this year and will continue that trend tonight against an inferior San Francisco offense.     

Baltimore Orioles ML (+105)

The Baltimore Orioles do not have many household names on their roster, but starting pitcher John Means is quickly becoming one. Means (3-0, 1.70 ERA) is quietly putting together another All-Star campaign, just like he did in 2019. His first start against the Mariners was his worst outing of the season, but we like his chances to pitch much better this time.

Saying that Means’ first start against Seattle was poor is not fair, as the rest of his starts have been lights out in comparison. Means allowed three runs on five hits (two home runs) in a home start against the Mariners on April 13th. If one removed that stat line, Means has a 1.13 ERA in his five other starts combined. Means has allowed just three earned runs in three road starts, which is impressive considering he has pitched at Fenway Park and Yankee Stadium this year.

Seattle’s Yusei Kikuchi (1-1, 4.40 ERA) comes in with momentum after allowing just one hit in seven scoreless innings in his last start against Houston. However, he had allowed ten earned runs in his previous 11.2 innings and did not make many bats miss with just four strikeouts in that span.

Baltimore’s ten road wins are the most in the majors, proving they are comfortable winning anywhere in the early part of the season. With their ace on the mound this afternoon, they should add to their impressive road record.

Milwaukee Brewers ML (-143)

The Milwaukee Brewers welcomed back two of the biggest bats in their lineup as Lorenzo Cain and Christian Yelich were activated off the IL on Monday. However, Yelich was almost instantly placed back on the IL after playing in just one game, while Cain has already provided pop with one home run since his return. 

This bet was never about the Brewers getting healthier, but was instead a fade of Phillies starter Chase Anderson (1-3, 5.40), who has done little to prove he can be trusted in any outing. He has pitched four innings or less in three of his five starts, and his BAA has increased with each start. 

On the contrary, Brewers starter Freddy Peralta (3-0, 2.25 ERA) has been lights out this year. His 40.2% strikeout rate ranks in the top ten in the majors, and just one team has hit for a better than .169 average in any of his six starts. The Brewers are 5-1 in his starts, with the only loss coming in extra innings in a game they had a two-run lead. 

Peralta has not earned as much early-season recognition as teammates Corbin Burnes or Brandon Woodruff, but he has been just as effective and has put his team in a position to win every game he has started this year.

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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