What a night of basketball! Thursday gave us two exciting elimination games, and tonight will give us another. With just one game scheduled for Friday, all eyes will be on Luka Doncic as he attempts to send the Los Angeles Clippers franchise into what could be a destructive tailspin. Kawhi Leonard will have something to say about that plan, but there is only so much he can do with a questionable supporting cast and coaching. It is going to be a fun one to watch.
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1. Mavericks +3 | -109 at DraftKings Sportsbook
The Clippers-Mavericks series has been one of the strangest in recent memory, with the road team winning every game so far. If that trend continues, we will be in for one of the most exciting Game 7 quarterfinals matchups we have seen in quite some time. However, Kawhi Leonard and the Los Angeles Clippers will need to force a Game 7 first.
Game 5 was very intriguing and, at the same time, illuminating. Luka Doncic went bonkers in the first three quarters but went ice cold in the fourth, allowing the Clippers to claw their way back into the game. Doncic got some critical help from his teammates to help the Mavericks escape with the win, but there were some lessons to be learned. The Mavericks do have a supporting cast that is good enough to beat teams in disarray, such as the Clippers. We also learned that they are likely not going to be clicking for a full 48. On the Los Angeles side, we once again saw that their defensive effort is raised considerably in the fourth quarter.
Luka will likely need to have another scintillating outing for it to happen, but the Mavericks look like the potential straight-up winner. When we add in the three point cushion, the probabilities lie with Dallas. Los Angeles has the talent, but the Mavericks are the better team and should easily cover if they can avoid another fourth quarter collapse. In a matchup that is so close, the plus points swings the value pendulum towards the home team.
2. Luka Doncic Over 31.5 Points | -127 at DraftKings Sportsbook
Donic is averaging 35 points per game in the playoffs and has scored 39 or more points in three of five. He has crossed the 31.5 point barrier in just those three contests but hit 31 in Game 1. Luka has an uncanny ability to dictate the pace of play when the ball is in his hands and will be close to unstoppable once again in Game 6. The Clippers, for whatever reason, do not lock in until the fourth quarter, this should allow Luka to hit more than 30 points by then.
He will need to have another high shot volume outing to aid in putting away the Clippers, especially if he is feeling it like he was early in Game 5. Even if he does not take north of 30 shots, as long as he plays 38 plus minutes, or even 36, he should still see the volume to hit 32 points. This juice on this prop is going to rise rather quickly, so lock this one in as soon as possible to avoid disappointment.
3. Luka Doncic Over 2.5 Three Pointers Made | -190 at DraftKings Sportsbook
Yes, the juice on this prop is quite high, but there is a reason for that. This is the best value on the board on a day with just one game and has been tapped by the sharps all night and morning. Doncic has hit five or more three pointers in four of the five games of this series.
He averaged 2.8 threes during the regular season but is up to 4.8 threes per game in the playoffs despite draining just one in Game 4. The juice is going wild here, so if you are not comfortable wagering close to two units for a one unit return, just lay one for the extremely high probability of a partial return.
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