Welcome to another Saturday afternoon filled with early summertime baseball. The Tigers and White Sox will get us going at 2:00 PM, kicking off the first of 15 games on an MLB slate that’ll conclude with Jacob deGrom taking on the electric young Padres at 10:00 PM.
Plenty of opportunities to bet and plenty of opportunities to win. We split our best bets last Saturday, bringing the year-to-date MLB record to 12-10. Today feels like a perfect day to string together a few wins, including our first run total bet of the season.
View the best player prop bets for today’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
Rockies / Athletics Over 11.5 (+105)
I anticipate this line moving quickly, so in case it does, I like it down to -110. I know 11.5 is a bit of a high number, but any time you can get plus-money odds on an over at Coors Field, it’s at least worth digging into. In this case, I like it a lot.
Both starting pitchers sport ERAs north of four. Kyle Freeland will take the hill for the home team, making just his third start of the year. He owns an ERA of 4.50 and a WHIP of 2.000 and is clearly still shaking some rust off after missing the first two months of the year with a shoulder issue. Even if Freeland happens to be a bit more settled in in this start, his career numbers aren’t much better than what he’s shown through his first two outings. His career ERA sits at 4.17, and an even worse 4.35 at home, which is where he’ll be pitching tonight.
Freeland is no stranger to high scoring games, and he’ll be facing an Oakland lineup that prefers facing a left-hander. The A’s team batting average against lefties is 14 points higher than against righties, and their team OPS is 44 points higher. With how the ball carries out in Colorado, Freeland could get the hook early, handing the ball over to the bullpen with the second-highest ERA in baseball.
Cole Irvin will go for Oakland, and despite making nine more starts than Freeland, his numbers are just as dismal. Irvin is pitching to a 4.12 ERA with just 45 strikeouts in 63.1 innings. If he’s going to pitch to contact at Coors Field, he will give up some runs. He sits in just the 10th percentile in strikeout rate, and that’s just not going to keep the ball in the ballpark at this altitude.
Both teams have also caught fire of late with the bats, and although it’s a small sample size, they’re combining to score over 14 runs per game over their last three. With the pitching matchup favoring the hitters, I like this one to go over the high number and cash a plus-money ticket.
White Sox -1.5 (-115)
I don’t usually include too many run line bets in my weekly posts, but I really like this spot for the White Sox against a pitcher who has had his struggles this season and a Tigers lineup that isn’t scaring anyone.
Detroit will hand the ball to Tarik Skubal, who hasn’t been able to keep the ball in the ballpark this year. He’s allowed 13 home runs in 11 starts, ballooning his ERA to 4.59 and leaving him with a 2-7 record. Enter the Chicago White Sox, who average the fifth most runs in baseball and have a 4-1 record against the lowly Tigers this year.
Interestingly enough, White Sox hitters have just seven career plate appearances off Skubal – all last year – but he didn’t record a single out against them. Small sample size? Sure, but clearly, Chicago’s approach does not mix well with what Skubal wants to do on the mound. Look for him to get roughed up early and turn the game over to a bullpen with the third-worst ERA in the league. Getting a late insurance run could be key to cashing a run line bet, and going against an overworked and ineffective bullpen is a great way to make sure that happens.
Lucas Giolito will toe the rubber for the White Sox. He’s their ace; his 3.73 ERA may not say so, but when he’s ‘on,’ his stuff is elite. It’ll be much easier for him to be ‘on’ against such a poor Tigers lineup, a lineup he’s had his way with in the past.
Lucas Giolito is 3-0 with a 1.29 ERA (3 ER/ 21.0 IP), 28 strikeouts and a .155 (11-71) opponents average over his last three games. pic.twitter.com/54vDzJ3Y1o
— Chicago White Sox (@whitesox) May 30, 2021
In 114 plate appearances against current Detroit hitters, Giolito is allowing an expected batting average of just .222, and he owns a 24.6% strikeout rate. The Tigers have struggled all year and are 29th in runs per game, so we should get more of the same dominance of this lineup from Giolito.
MLB Prop Bets
J.D. Martinez Prop Bet Odds
Cody Bellinger Prop Bet Odds
Clayton Kershaw Prop Bet Odds
Brandon Woodruff Prop Bet Odds
Ronald Acuna Prop Bet Odds
View the top deposit bonuses and promo codes for each sportsbook >>
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts
Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our Sports Betting 101 Section — including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners — or head to more advanced sports betting strategy — like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread — to learn more.
Mike Wagenman is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @mjwags23.
The post Top MLB Betting Picks for Saturday, June 5th (2021) appeared first on BettingPros.