Top NBA Betting Picks for Friday, May 7

We have just over a week left of regular-season basketball, as the NBA’s play-in tournament is fast approaching. Players have voiced their complaints about the new rule, but the additional drama suggests that things are working as planned.

Here are the top NBA betting plays for Friday, May 7, provided by BettingPros experts Raju Byfield and Isaiah Sirois (Main game odds courtesy BettingPros Consensus; lock and prop odds sites may vary):

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Check out our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet for the top bets of the day >>

Betting Lock of the Day

Sirois: Trail Blazers -8.5 (-110 at FD Sportsbook)
The Los Angeles Lakers won’t have LeBron James, and it’s hard to see how Anthony Davis will play tonight after he exited last night’s game with back spasms. And with Dennis Schroder still on the shelf, the Lakers won’t have three of their five best players, per FiveThirtyEight’s RAPTOR ratings. Oddsmakers have consistently overrated the Lakers this season, as they have gone just 29-36-1 ATS, the fourth-worst record in the NBA. In contrast, Portland boasts a 34-32 ATS record, and they are much healthier than the Lakers. The Trail Blazers should assert themselves and win by double-digits.

Top Game Prop of the Day

Sirois: Nuggets Over 106.5 (-110 at FD Sportsbook)
It’s rare that you’ll see Denver’s point total set so low, but the matchup with Utah calls for it. However, Denver surpassed this total in their last game against the Jazz with 128 points. They nearly did it in their other game against them, too, as they ended up with 117. Although they did have Jamal Murray in both matchups, Nikola Jokic was responsible for most of Denver’s offensive production — he averaged 41 points per game across the two outings. With Michael Porter Jr. scoring 24.3 points per game since mid-April, Denver has a real shot to beat this total. They may not have the benefit of home-court advantage, but the averages point to some value here — the Nuggets score 115.1 points per game and the Jazz allow 107.

Top Player Prop of the Day 

Sirois: Seth Curry Over 2.5 Made Threes (+120 at FD Sportsbook)
What is FanDuel Sportsbook doing with this line? Curry has made at least three three-pointers in five of his last six games, and he has averaged 2.3 made threes per game since the All-Star Break. He’s also playing the NBA’s worst perimeter defense — the Pelicans surrender the most made threes per game (14.6). They have fared better against shooting guards than some other teams, but they still allow 3.5 made threes per game to the position, which would be enough for Curry to cash this prop. It’s no sure thing that Curry sinks three shots from deep, but the odds for him to do it are much higher than the implied odds of this line (45%). I also like the over on Curry’s points (11.5, -102) and on Danny Green’s made threes (2.5, +104).

Check out our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet for the top bets of the day >>

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