Top NBA Betting Picks for Sunday, May 3

As the NBA’s regular season winds down, we’ve still got loaded slates of betting action — along with lots of data to help us make picks. Our experts have a consensus lean against the spread for two of tonight’s games — keep reading to see which one.

Here are the top NBA betting plays for Monday, May 3, provided by BettingPros experts James Bisson, Raju Byfield, and Isaiah Sirois (Main game odds courtesy BettingPros Consensus; lock and prop odds sites may vary):

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Check out our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet for the top bets of the day >>

Betting Lock of the Day

Sirois: Knicks +3.5 (-114 at FD Sportsbook)
My NBA betting model has gone 5-0-1 when predicting ATS locks, and it sees two tonight (check out my Twitter for the second one later tonight). The model loves the Knicks here because the efficiency stats don’t agree with where this spread has been set. Its efficiency-based spread actually favors New York by a two-point margin. Second, the Knicks have impressed on the road this season, as they have gone 20-11 ATS away from home. That’s good for the NBA’s second-best such record. Two things that Knicks bettors should know before committing to this game? One, they’re on the wrong end of a back-to-back. However, they have gone 8-4 ATS when playing without rest, the NBA’s second-best such record. Two, Nerlens Noel is questionable, so New York could be pressed for depth at center. That said, my model wouldn’t favor the Knicks any less if Noel failed to suit up — they should still have more than enough quality players to cover.  

Top Game Prop of the Day

Sirois: Knicks First Half +1.5 (-110 at FD Sportsbook)
The Knicks struggled to finish games earlier in the year, but their recent 11-1 tear has seen them clean things up in the second half. That said, they still give up the fewest points per first half (52.1). That points to a decent edge on this line, as Memphis surrenders the 15th-most points per first half (56.1) and scores the 12th-fewest (55.7). Of course, New York’s first-half offense also ranks quite low in points per game, but we can blame that on their slow pace — they rank as the NBA’s slowest squad. Memphis doesn’t have that excuse, as they play at the sixth-fastest pace. This play makes a strong addition to any single-game parlay for this matchup. 

Top Player Prop of the Day 

Sirois: Joel Embiid Over 25.5 Points (-112 at FD Sportsbook)
Embiid nearly doubled this total the last time he played the Bulls, as he finished with a whopping 50 points. Sure, that came before the Nikola Vucevic trade, but Vooch isn’t a great defender — his defensive RAPTOR rating (+0.4) is actually worse than Wendell Carter’s (+1.0). Vucevic is also questionable for tonight’s action. The primary concern with this play is that the 76ers completely blow out the Bulls and pull their starters too soon (or that they just sit them), especially after yesterday’s hard-fought overtime win. That said, I’ll play this over anyway, as the total is miles below Embiid’s average points per game (29.7) and his average since the All-Star Break (27.9). 

Check out our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet for the top bets of the day >>

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