Top NBA Betting Picks for Wednesday, May 12

We’ve reached the final Wednesday of the NBA regular season. Teams are jostling for playoff positioning, and intrigue of the play-in tournament has only added to the drama.

Here are the top NBA betting plays for Wednesday, May 12, provided by BettingPros experts James Bisson, Raju Byfield, and Isaiah Sirois (Main game odds courtesy BettingPros Consensus; lock and prop odds sites may vary):

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Check out our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet for the top bets of the day >>

Betting Lock of the Day

Sirois: Mavericks -9.5 (-106 at FD Sportsbook)
The Mavericks took down the Pelicans by a 13-point margin the last time these teams met in Dallas. Although the Pelicans responded with a five-point win in New Orleans, the Mavericks didn’t have Kristaps Porzingis or Luka Doncic in the loss. The Pelicans have fought hard to keep their play-in tournament hopes alive despite missing both Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram, but I suspect that the risk-reward calculations will keep New Orleans from putting their best foot forward tonight. In contrast, the Mavericks are desperately clutching onto the last true playoff spot in the Western Conference, so they have every reason to win big here. Also, they significantly outrank the Pelicans in offensive efficiency (14th to 24th) over the last three games, a trend that I anticipate will continue.

Top Game Prop of the Day

Sirois: Lakers Over 117.5 (-108 at FD Sportsbook)
The Lakers score the eighth-fewest points per game (109.1). So why has this total been set so high? Well, the Rockets have stopped playing defense, allowing their last five opponents to beat this total by an average of 14.4 points. Now, the Lakers’ slow pace and sluggish offense would usually push me onto the under. But even the slower-paced Knicks beat this total with 122 points, so I’ll bet against Houston’s defense as they wait for their awful season to end. That said, keep a close eye on the statuses of LeBron James and Anthony Davis — I only consider this a true lock of one of them plays.

Top Player Prop of the Day 

Sirois: Josh Richardson Over 1.5 Made Threes (+128 at FD Sportsbook)
The shooting guard facing the NBA’s second-worst perimeter defense has plus-money odds to hit a pair of three-pointers. Wild. New Orleans surrenders 14.5 made threes per game to their opponents and 3.5 per game to shooting guards, the ninth-most. Meanwhile, Richardson makes 1.5 and attempts 4.6 three-point shots per game, so he’ll barely need an above-average showing against a bad defense to hit the over. Three-pointer props are always a bit of a tossup, but the odds for Richardson to make a pair of shots from deep are better than the implied odds of this total (43.9%) — he has nailed at least two threes in 50% of his games this year.   

Check out our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet for the top bets of the day >>

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